Recent research published in the journal Science reveals that El Niño events over the past 40 years are about 36% stronger than pre-industrial levels and stronger than at any point in the last 1,000 years.
The Discovery
▫️Galapagos Corals: Led by researchers like Professor Julia Cole, scientists analyzed core samples from 13 modern and ancient fossil coral boulders in the Galápagos Islands.
▫️Chemical Archives: Corals grow by adding calcium carbonate layers. By measuring geochemical ratios like strontium-to-calcium and oxygen isotopes, the team reconstructed a 1,000-year timeline of tropical Pacific seawater temperatures.
▫️Unprecedented Intensity: The data shows that severe El Niño warmth in recent decades far exceeds natural historical variability seen over the past millennium.
Causes and Implications
▫️Human-Caused Warming: Climate models and historical comparisons confirm that natural factors (like solar activity or volcanoes) cannot explain this sharp spike. The intensification closely mirrors accelerated global greenhouse gas emissions.
▫️Extreme Weather: Stronger El Ninos supercharge global temperatures and worsen extreme global impacts, including severe droughts, intense floods, and unusual tropical storms.
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